My Way of Sports Betting

* this is in research/testing phase (8000 bets and counting)
* stake used in research: €5 (1pt)
* all data recorded / provided with
* links in the article are NOT affiliate links
* goal: 100000 bets



2.1  Concept
3.1  Conditions
3.2   Example of recorded bet with conditions for TRH
4.1 How It works
4.2 Moneymakers


Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure. Mathematics can be seen as the search for regularities, and the output of any function is a mathematical pattern. Similarly in the sciences, theories explain and predict regularities in the world. Something that repeats in a predictable way is a pattern. You might find a pattern in a series of numbers.

Simple Definition of pattern
•    a repeated form or design especially that is used to decorate something
•    the regular and repeated way in which something happens or is done
•    something that happens in a regular and repeated way

I begun studying patterns few months ago in football and I will write about how I use patterns in football betting, but for now I will stay with horse racing because there is much more opportunities for pattern use than in football.
When I begun with horse racing I didn’t know much about it so I started with payed services, tipsters and systems and that lead me nowhere. After that unsuccessful adventure I decided to find selections my way and it begun with Pattern Form, of course. It is a great source of information and I decided to use it as a “source code” for my horse racing selections. My knowledge of horse racing was very poor so I had to learn plenty of stuff, including things like race types, race courses, going, distances etc. I had begun using Pattern Form cards like this:
So, I started to pick selections using PTF cards and record bets to see my progress. I started with some bad selections but then I spotted something that triggered my adventure with patterns: whenever my selections were the same as PTF top rated horse (let’s call it TRH)  I had a good ROI (over 15%) and a good strike rate (for WIN bets). After that I decided not to waste time with my semi-random selections and to focus on TRH (Top Rated Horse) and how can I use most of it. Idea was to observe TRH behavior in similar conditions.

That was the first step.

(example of Top Rated Horse TRH – same horse top rated in both columns):


I was asked why I insist on straight betting rather than trading. I do prefer trading, stock exchange was my primary subject my  last year in university and I got my MBA on thesis “Comparative Analysis: American VS Australian Stock Exchange”.  I decided to put trading aside for a while because I can’t do it both: doing research for my straight betting and prepare for trading. There is just not enough hours in a day. And I have a life. Good one, if I may add (don’t want big guy upstairs to hear me complaining and change something). I compromise: I will continue trading but only on Forex so I can have enough time for my project, finish everything by 4-5 pm and enjoy rest of the day.
Now, since start, this project cost me: one beautiful girl, couple of K’s, lots of valuable time and a few insignificant followers (was quiet on twitter for a while and wasn’t posting selections). But…. I gained another mind-blowing girl (will brag about it on twitter), possibility for new way of sports betting and lots of fun watching stuff emerging from it. After a few weeks it become a game to me. I created a couple of patterns and begun testing them. Pretty soon I realize this dance has huge potential and I should spend at least 4 hours a day playing with it. So I did.

2.1  Concept

I started this project back in April 2016 when I started building database, but official testing begun on June 23, 2016 on my Google Sheets page so I can see which patterns should be improved and which should be discarded.
Now, let me give you an example of my idea finding potential bets from my database before I move on with rest of my “pattern” theory. Let’s say I want to see how is TRH performing with 2 conditions: 5 furlongs races, WIN bets. I go to “Your stats” page and type Win + 5fto5f:
And get these results:
This means if I have placed €5 WIN bet on TRH in every 5 furlong race I would earn €93.1 with 16.79%  return. Let’s go a little bit further and narrow down if possible. From TAGS section I can see if I add one more condition, let it be 7+R (more than 7 rated runners) I can improve performance:
So, I enter another condition in “Your stats”: 7+R

And get these results:
This means if I have placed €5 WIN bet on TRH in every 5 furlong race where there has been more than 7 rated runners by Pattern Form, I would earn €180.5 with 95%  return. Now, this is just an example how I started to search for potential profitable patterns. Pattern Form card with more than 7 rated runners looks like this (in this picture there is 9 rated runners:
ptf 7 runners card


To be able to track, record or review any past performance you will need some sort of database or database management system (DBMS). And you will have to build it yourself. It is not complicated but is very time-consuming. So, if you are nine-to-fiver or not your own boss, you can forget about it. When I first started with football betting I was using “Betting Tracker Excel Worksheet” to track my bets. It’s free and can be downloaded here along with other very useful tools. Although it is a great tool (especially for beginners), in time my appetite grew and I needed a tool that can meet all my requirements regarding number of conditions/parameters for each bet/selection. I am often on twitter, communicating with fellow bettors/traders and was introduced to a fantastic tool for tracking & recording bets, where you can input unlimited numbers of conditions (parameters) for your selection. And that was something I need if I want to start building a serious database. It’s called and can be used in many ways but I decided to use it not only to track my bets but to build my online database, in this particular case: “pattern” database.

3.1  Conditions

Every day I start with PTF Formbet (WIN Stats) cards like this for every race course:

When I started to record bets and build database for TRH, I begun with only 3 conditions:
1. Bet type: Win / Place
2. TRH Ratings: 50-80 / 80-100 / 100-120 / 120-140 / 140-160
3. Race Type:  Flat / Hurdle / Chase

(eg value 100-120 is actually 100-119,99)

That was a moment when I thought nothing serious could come up but maybe it could help me find potential picks, or to discard bad ones at least. Soon enough I realize that this is very time-consuming process: sometimes there are over 40 races per day which means over 80 bets (win and place) and I have to record every one of them with all conditions. Nevertheless, I added more conditions, simply because I organized my primary business that way I have time to commit myself to this project for 1 year in pursuit of my third source of income. And if I want to do it right I needed more valuable data so I decided to add more conditions I thought could influence the outcome:

4. No of rated horses: 1R / 2R / 3R / 4R / 5R / 6R / 7R / 7+R(over 7 rated horses)
5. No of runners: 3-5 / 6-10 / 11-15 / 15+
6. Distance: 5f / 6f / 7f / 8f / 8f-10f / 9f-11f / 10f-12f/ 11f-13f /12f-14f /13f-15f / 14f-16f / 15f-17f
16f-18f / 17f-19f / 18f-20f / 19f-21f / 19f-23f / 20f-24f / 21f-25f /22f-26f / 23f-27f / 24f-28f / 26f-30f
7. Going: fm/gf/gd / gd/gs / gd/gs/sft / gf/gd/gs / gs/sft/hy / fm/gf / sft/hy / AW
8. Race Course: England and Ireland race courses
9. Odds

Additional conditions:

10. Double
11. Ireland
12. NH or Hunters
13. FAV (first on the list)

3.2   Example of recorded bet with conditions for TRH

This is an example of my TRH bet recorded with

This bet has 3 additional conditions: NH (National Hunt), IRE (Ireland), FAV (favourite, first on the list) along with 8 main conditions (plus 9th: Odds).


I am currently testing over 30 patterns with different versions (in time some of them evolved) but I started with just few if them. Every pattern can have between 2 and 9 conditions with 4 additional conditions. Those conditions can be positive (white) and negative (red with prefix NO). To give you an idea how it looks I will show you 2 patterns, one with all positive and one with both positive and negative conditions.

4.1 How It Works

One of the first patterns I created were a patterns called Placer 1.1 and Placer 2.1 (go figure), both created on June 27, 2016.

Placer 1.1 – 5 positive conditions

1.   Bet Type:                         Place
2.   TRH value:
3.   Race Type:                      Flat
4.   No of Rated Horses:
5.   No of Runners:
6.   Distance:                         5f/6f/7f/11f-13f
7.   Going:                              fm/gf/gd
8.   Race Course:
9.   Odds:                               1.75 – 5.00

Placer 2.1 – 4 conditions: 3 positive (white) and 1 negative (red)

1.   Bet Type:                         Place
2.   TRH value:
3.   Race Type:
4.   No of Rated Horses:
5.   No of Runners:
6.   Distance:                        No 12f-14f/13f-15f/14f-16f/15f-17f
7.   Going:                              fm/gf/gd
8.   Race Course:
9.   Odds:                               1.75 – 2.00 & 2.50 – 5.00

Example of the horse qualified for Placer 2.1 pattern:

placer 2.1 bet

Performance of these patterns since June 27 is:


As you can see they are no “moneymakers”, but are good example to show you how it works.  And both of them evolved to .2 versions on August 10 to see if I can improve their performance. Now I will show you an example of WIN pattern, called 6er 1.1 (created on June 22) and is named like that because of the main condition: Distance 6 furlongs

6er 1.1 – 4 positive conditions and 1 negative condition

1.   Bet Type:                         Win
2.   TRH value:                     100-120
3.   Race Type:
4.   No of Rated Horses:
5.   No of Runners:
6.   Distance:                         6f
7.   Going:
8.   Race Course:
9.   Odds:                               2.00 – all
10. Additional:                       No Fav

The additional No Fav condition means if selection is favorite (first on the list) the bet is void and I would move on. Performance of this pattern since June 22:


This is the pattern that since then had 5 different versions (6er 1.1/1.2/1.3 etc) and I would not bet on 6er 1.1 selection yet because it does not have enough bets in my database. But what I can do is look how to improve it. Perhaps with Odds, or Going, or… Let’s look the Odds of 6er 1.1:


As you can see. the only reason why this pattern is profitable is because one selection hit big odds (10.00 – 25.00). Otherwise it would be a loser. But what I can do is add one more condition to this pattern: Only odds 3.00 – 5.00, for example. Or, better yet, I go to Tags sections to see what I can improve and immediately see the opportunity with “Going” condition:


So, if I want to improve performance I would add “fm/gf/gd” condition to this pattern.

4.2 Moneymakers

Previous examples were just to explain the madness behind this whole concept. Since the start of this project I have noticed a few things I wouldn’t have never noticed if I haven’t started this idea. I will post, from time to time, facts I uncover during my TRH database building and patterns testing. But let’s begin with some fun stuff.

Phenomenon 15-17 

You probably already guessed this is the distance 15f-17f. And you probably are asking why this distance is so special and wtf am I talking about. Let’s start from the top: In Your Stats page I will enter 2 conditions: Win + 15f-17f




Split by odds…


You see? Very solid 200 bets shows me completely unreal performance of the Pattern Form Top Rated Horse (TRH). In the beginning I created 4 patterns regarding this distance and now I have 2 solid ones. I will not yet disclose conditions for those “moneymakers” because I already mentioned that building, testing and running this project will last 1 year but I will post selections from it, both on my Twitter account and Google Sheets “Live Testing” page.

6 Furlongs

This is very popular distance. Let see… Enter Win + 6fto6f in Stats page:




As you can see, very lucrative distance to bet on where Pattern Form selections is quite spot on.  I can go deeper into this distance to see where can I improve performance but I will do it when start to create more patterns regarding this distance.

There are more “anomalies” like this but I have already posted enough examples and is probably getting annoying. There is no need, you should already have the general idea of my “Game Of Patterns”.  And I will try to post selections and patterns on daily basis.


I almost never bet (WIN bet) on favorite horse with odds between 1.50 – 2.50. Unless it’s part of profitable pattern. Not just because there is very low profit margin but because my database told me so:


As far as favorite is concerned, I looked at my database and created very simple pattern called HF 1.1 (Heavy Favorite) with just 2 conditions: WIN bet with odds 1.25 – 1.50.


Not a very good SR & return but if I break down this pattern further (with TAGS section) I can see what’s wrong. I enter HF 1.1 in Your stats page:




With condition fm/gf/gd I have 100% strike rate, but there is not enough bets in my database to make proper decision. So I will keep monitoring its behavior to see what will happen when it hits 200 bets, for example.

I am also monitoring one other thing. I want to lay the favorite. And I want to do it cheap, odds 1.50 – 2.00. So whenever I input “back” selection with odds 1.50 – 2.00 in my database I also input “lay” bet for the same horse (with all conditions):



I add “LTF” (Lay The Favorite) tag to the bet so I can review its behavior later. When I want to see what is happening with it I enter LTF tag in Your stats page:



I will break it down to see what I can do when it reaches, let’s say, 200 bets.


I am not much of a planner. I was, once, but now I just live day by day. I “verified” (couple of times) expression “If you want to hear God laugh…tell him your plans”. And I am scared of Murphy and his fucking law. He has always been around to ruin most of the things in my life. That’s why I love this game. I do not have to plan anything. Just observe what is happening and what can emerge from it. And I can’t wait to see what will happen when I will have enough bets (100000) to analyze Pattern Form TRH behavior on each race course, both England and Ireland. That should be a significant condition to my patterns. I am live testing patterns (Google Sheets) with 1 stake, it’s easy for me to overview selections, monitor pattern progress,  and be transparent at the same time. And I will try to orderly post new ideas and thoughts on my blog and twitter account.

Now, this whole project of mine could be bullshit. But I don’t care. I just want to have fun along the way. Got nothing to hide, no one to fear.

Good luck.

Predrag Erac

CEO, Cirkus Ltd, Belgrade, Serbia

7. LINKS – Best Kept Secret On The Web (♥ magic behind numbers ♥) – The easiest way to manage your betting portfolio

google sheets – Pedja Erac project: Game Of Patterns – Test Phase 2.1 (for patterns testing, not live betting!)

@PedjaErac – my Twitter account

Betting Tracker Excel Worksheet – tracks your betting history and provides performance data


Huge “thanks” to Martin Kilgariff, Head of PatternForm

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