Game Of Patterns: Day 620

Snowmageddon is going away. Racing in the UK is slowly coming back. But, the weather is still harsh, lots of meetings abandoned. Including Newbury, Doncaster, Navan, Kelso. I will wait for the weather to clear a bit, before I go again full power with my patterns.

Today only flat racing, but I have 1 selection. And it is for pattern 11. Let me elaborate further. I created this pattern for “heavy favorites” and I will explain what I mean by that. Heavy Favorites (HF) are horses priced bellow 1.50, who are TRH (Top Rated Horse in Patternform, explained in my theory). I have been tracking heavy favorites (HF) since I started my project, back in 2016. There were 229 races where favorites were priced below 1.50, and if you have bet on them all, this will be your results:


Source: My database General Section (€5/bet sample size)

If you have placed €5 per bet on HF, you would be losing. In all races: flat, hurdle or chase. What I tried to do, is find a way to make it work. To make betting on favorites profitable, and beat the bookies my way.

So, let’s go further. Let’s go to tags. I wanted to see HF behavior in each specific race (flat, hurdle, chase):


Source: My database Tags Section (€5/bet sample size)

HF is ONLY profitable in flat races. Return (ROI) is +3.17%. And it can be improved. So, let’s go further and see what can be narrowed down in flat racing:



Source: My HF database Tags Section / Flat Racing (€5/bet sample size)

Can you spot anomalies here? I should CLEARLY AVOID 6 and 8 furlong races. Or, I should stay away from flat races with gf/gd/gs going. Although I’ve been tracking it for almost 2 years, I think the sample size is still small to be sure of anything (after all, this is still betting) and I will keep it simple. For now, pattern 11 conditions are just few (bet type, race type and odds):


Pattern 11

You can track it here on Tipstrr page. In the future, I might include distance or going. So, to get back where I was started today, I have 1 selection today, and it is for pattern 11:


Chelmsford City 3rd Mar 18:15 Jellmood @ 1.41 Pt11

You can see all conditions for this bet:


Source: My database

Now, I never bet on horses priced bellow 3.00. And I would NEVER EVER bet on heavy favorites, it’s just not worth the risk. But I have something to prove. My theory. And I want to beat the bookies in their own game.


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